Candidate predictors were chosen based on their clinical relevance, common use in the clinic, and availability at the time when the model is meant to be used (Moons et al 2009, Royston et al 2009). Severity of stroke was measured using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (Brott et al 1989, Kasner 2006). NIHSS scores were obtained 24 hours after the administration of recombinant tissue click here plasminogen activator. Standing up ability was measured using Item 4 (sitting to standing) of the MAS (Carr et al 1985). Combined motor function of the arm was obtained by summing the scores of Items 6 (upper arm function), 7 (hand movements), and 8 (advanced hand activities) of the

MAS (Carr et al 1985). Pre-morbid function was assessed with the Barthel Index (Collin et al 1988, Kasner 2006). Spasticity of the ankle plantarflexors was measured using the Tardieu Scale and was recorded as present if a catch or clonus was detected during fast-velocity limb movements (Patrick and Ada 2006). Validity and reliability of all assessment tools have been established (Carr et al 1985, Kasner

2006, Lannin 2004, Mehrholz et al 2005, Patrick and Ada 2006, Poole and Whitney 1988). Measurements were performed by three experienced neurological physiotherapists who learn more also received online training and certification to carry out the NIHSS. Therapists who performed outcome measures at follow-up were blinded to baseline measures. Patients received tuclazepam standard medical and allied

health care according to the National Stroke Foundation guidelines in Australia. As this was a secondary analysis of a cohort study on contractures, sample size for the current study was not calculated a priori. However, 80 participants achieved independent ambulation and 21 participants achieved independent upper limb function, and we used five candidate predictors in the ambulation models and two candidate predictors in the upper limb models. Therefore the sample size was sufficient to satisfy the widely used criterion of 10 cases per candidate predictor ( Peduzzi et al 1996). Participants who had achieved independent ambulation and upper limb function at baseline had already recovered, so they were excluded from subsequent analyses. Participants who died were also excluded from subsequent analyses. Thus the incidence of independent ambulation and upper limb function is the incidence amongst those who had not already recovered at baseline, conditional on survival. As there were very few missing data (< 6%; 10 missing for Item 7 of MAS, 11 missing for Item 8 of MAS), a complete case analysis was undertaken. For participants with bilateral strokes, measures from the initially worse side were chosen for analysis – if both sides were the same, one side was randomly selected. If predictors were highly correlated (r > 0.6), the predictor that was more widely used and had fewer missing data was used.